A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
